Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Sunday, June 28, 2009
if we go up 930-940 should be our top before going lower again, thats of course if we can break the 921 range. We are still in the 882-921 range right now, I'd short near 920 and cover under 900 for a quick trade. Also we may go to 930-940 before coming down so don't gamble more than you can stomach.
We will test under 900 again within next few weeks, let's see where we find support this time.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Sad night, I'll always remember the music video Thriller, classic masterpiece!
Keep eye for exhaustion around 921, once we fill that gap we can start heading down, if we break out we might be heading back up to test the highs and fail at 940 area.
Futures are starting to rise here : 909 high on S&P futures as of the time I typed this.
920 is definitely in play tomorrow and if we break 921 with authority I will have new targets but I don't see this happening as of yet.
Let's see how we open up, they will want any shorts to cover so they may take it to 920 fairly quickly.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
.... and a third, fourth and a fifth in my books! LOL
They have to learn to let free markets work themselves out, its like nature, leave it be and let it run its course. Bailing out failed companies and industries only adds fuel to the fire that will eventually run its course naturally.
Its too late now to artificially fix the economy, damage has been done with the bailouts and it will take far longer now to let it cure, its like tearing off a scab, let it heal before you mess around with it!
I think 920 is still in play, indices look like we could crash hard, but not expecting that just yet, I think we will get a orderly selloff with minor rallies to keep bulls in the game, 882-920 range we still are in.
As for the fed:
"The Fed has held its target rate for overnight loans between banks at zero to 0.25 percent since Dec. 16 and more than doubled the assets on its balance sheet during the past year to $2.1 trillion, expanding bank reserves and beginning lending programs to bolster the financial system"
"The Fed has purchased a total of $177.475 billion in Treasuries in the 31 buybacks of U.S. government debt since March 25. The central bank’s purchases pale in comparison to the record amounts of Treasuries the government is selling to finance economic stimulus programs"
What a big mess, the fed is basically doing a big ponzi scheme, when will the house of cards finally topple over? (I say by March 2010)
We bounced off my 11am bottom call @ 888 yesterday, now up to 920 to fill that gap, we are making a new trading range, I'm guessing a good rally going into fed meeting to fill that 920 gap, lets see how high we can go before meeting some major resistance.
Monday, June 22, 2009
This post is not meant to spread fear or anything... I am just releasing information & giving an opinion
Ok so July 4th is a major holiday for the U.S., this is when major news or events usually happen and the public is "occupied" to not take-in what's really going on. For example the government passing a bill with drastic measures or a ill-fate attack on a country and so forth.
Did you know that Mexico has legalized drugs for personal use? This is true, and I bet you 95% of Americans & Canadians even, DO NOT know this fact. The mexican government approved this law on the same day the Swine flu was released to the public media. Its a tactical way to keep the public in "sheep" format, keep them inline and non-oppressive.
I do not want to scare people or be called a fear mongerer but I would be prepared to keep a eye out for any major events that are dumbed down during the July 4th holiday. Iran is in a full state of protest right now as the people do not agree with the recently appointed President on the June 12th election day. The people know the election was rigged to keep power in the hands of the elite. American news is spreading that North Korea is expecting a US planned attack on them. Things are very dicey on the world scale; keep a eye out during next weekends holiday and stay away from major crowds in my opinion.
This "news" that may occur could be a major catalyst for the stock market to fall off a cliff once again. (as I said in a older post the market should start selling off before this event actually takes place, the stock market has been going down ever since June 12th after the Iranian elections.)
We hit my 893 target prediction literally at the end of the close today, we have broken support from May 27th closing price, this is pretty much telling us we have further downside to go but it might not happen all at once this time, I see us range bound for awhile. Keep a eye on futures tonight to give us a clue into tomorrows action!~
As I wrote last week, I was expecting another big drop that will break 900 and I got it already by Monday (even before noon!) Not too shabby!
We are going to make a new lower trading range this week, the break of 900 will give us a good idea how far this drop is gonna go, we should eventually make new lows in the index during the early part of 2010, I'm not expecting major crash until then, but we should drift lower and lower throughout the fall and winter seasons, with minor bounces to keep those bulls salivating ;)
Saturday, June 20, 2009
Bank Of America Board Loses 2 More Directors (link)
Anyone see a recurring theme happening here? All the top people of these soon to be bankrupted financial instituations are playing hopscotch around their industries, as one fails they bounce to the other industry that will most likely fail further down the road.
Where is the investigations into all this fraud and crookery that goes on in wall street? We have private detectives to catch that lazy person at home thats on health benefits thats swears they can't move their neck, but we don't have proper oversight on the ones that really cause harm in our lives; the banks.
I'm expecting Bank of American & Citigroup to fail on the next big downturn in the market, and they will most likely be blended into the JPMorgan's and Goldman Sach's (seeing as Goldman Sach is now classified as a bank and no longer a "investment firm" - what a JOKE!
"Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation,
and I care not who makes its laws."
~ Mayer Amschel Rothschild (a.k.a one evil bastard! LOL)
Friday, June 19, 2009
Calif. unemployment climbs to record 11.5 percent
"California's unemployment rate climbed to 11.5 percent in May, the highest in modern record-keeping, the US Department of Labor reported Friday..."
"California, which is struggling to close a $24.3 billion budget gap, faces the prospect of a "multi-notch" downgrade in its credit rating if the state's legislature fails to act quickly to produce a budget, ..."
Guys this is rate the US Labor Department is giving, it is way higher when you actually count just the people doing part-time and like 10-15 hrs a week, they don't count these people, when US Department reports these numbers you can almost double them to find out the real truth of how many people are not working.
I'd say California is close to 20% Unemployment rate, this is getting close to Great Depression numbers back in the 30's. As for the stock market we should be getting fresh new lows, how are they gonna prop up the stock market if more and more people are losing their jobs? End of the year is looking very bad for the states, I'm predicting a final bear market bottom around March of 2010 (Early 2010). California is the worst of all the states, they will have to declare bankruptcy on their debts sometime, as the US dollar should follow early afterwards, Ben Bernake and Co. are just delaying the inevitable at this point...
In the near future I'm expecting news to show that California will not be able to pay its debt payments, this should lead to another sell off in the stock market, the market will most likely start heading down before this news hits.
and down we went, lets see if we try to test it again (927), if not we should break down through 900 next week
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Anyone who bought CIWT yesterday when I made the China Investing post just made close to 6% today.
Most mutual fund managers and hedge fund managers in the industry on average haven't made 6% in years! They would be happy to just break even at this point. LOL
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Part 2 Investing : China
Ok China you have heard all of the good things about investing here for the future, well I'm sure they will be greatly powerful in the next 50 years or so, but they maybe too large for their own good (and I'm sure they will have lots and lots of growing pains!), but nevertheless alot of money is going to be made here.
Here are some of my favorite picks, I've researched high and low to find good quality stocks in China. These are some of the ones I will buy when we finish this bear market, keep in mind China's stock market will likely bottom at different times than US market (it might have bottomed already!)
China Aluminum (ACH), Top notch aluminum company in China, don't really need to say much more, great investment for the future of the mighty China juggernaut. This stock was under $10 just a few months ago and came close to touching $30 just last week! I'd wait for significant correction and buy some up. Not sure if they have a dividend, if they do all the better, can anyone confirm this?
China Life Insurance (LFC), Biggest life insurance company in China, nothing but growth for the future, everyone needs life insurance. They have 1% dividend yield right now also. Great large cap for consistent growth rates.
Ctrip.com (CTRP), China's online travel company. With the expansion of China's middle class they are traveling more and more. CTRP taking full advantage of this, 0.6% yield right now. Stock has doubled in a few months so I would wait for significant correction to get some.
Baidu (BIDU), You most likely have heard of this one, this is China's version of Google, with a potential of a billion people surfing the internet this can be pretty exciting. Stock has tripled in 6 months, if u can get it on the cheap go nuts! Its a tad pricey, but you know what they say - buy it high and sell it higher! If I never bought Google back in 2004, I would have missed out on 300% gains, people thought I was nuts buying Google after it doubled in such a short time (I bought it at $150). They were so wrong!
China Education Alliance (CEUA), Here's one you probably haven't heard of, they are a online education company for China, more and more people getting their education from home on their internet connection. Great play as China has over a billion people ;) This stock is trading under fair EPS value using Warren Buffet's intrinsic value formula. I've had this stock for awhile its tripled in value in a few months, again you might want to wait to get some.
China Industrial Waste Management (CIWT), Garbage removal company, seems like a great idea to invest in something that is needed everyday, with a population like China I like my odds on this one, again they are trading under current intrinsic value according to Warren Buffet's formula. This one I would get some right now and hold. It's ready to pop real soon.
China Agritech (CAGC), Another small cap in China you probably have never heard about, (well thats why you got me right?) ;) I found this one just one day scouring the net for potential investments in China. This one is trading under intrinsic value as well. They manufacture and sell agriculture products and fertilizers. Again a no brainer when your looking at growth in China, people need to eat and this is one that will continue to grow in the future. The profit margins are consistent and of course any american company would die to have their rates (20%+) This stock has quadrupled since start of the year, so you can see the value in some of these stocks I'm telling you about.
These are a few of my favorite picks, again I have no affiliation with these companies and please do your own homework before you take my advice and purchase some of these stocks, set stop losses just in case you don't get wiped out with the small caps, cause they sure can move very quickly. Also with these stocks I have long term outlook, I can hold these if the market shuts down for 10 years and comes back, you should have the same discipline.
Tell me what you guys/gals think, do you have any recommendations that anyone reading might like to research themselves?
My next lesson will be Part 3 Investing : Canada
Cheers till next time!
We have hit my low target near 900 after the selloff from 950 area last week, we may see a bounce or consolidation at these levels before a further sell off or we could go back up and try to make a new high but fail.
FAZ is leading the way today and alot of my small caps are getting hit hard today, usually this means alot of money is coming out before a big fall.
Probably some consolidating today before a bigger drop off tomorrow and friday.
Monday, June 15, 2009
* Ladies & Gents when we finally bottom (I'm thinking Mar 2010 we will finally bottom) read below for my picks in which I have studied in past 5 year
OK so I am going to help out my fellow friends who read my blog and give me support through out my blogging. This will be a part series, this is first part technology.
WHEN we bottom, you are going to want to buy like mad and I mean load up as much as you can, we will have such a massive rally it will be incredible.
This is what you should buy.
Part 1 Investing : Technology
Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG), they have a foothold in the future of technology, trust me these guys will be the leaders in 10-20 years from now, MSFT is the past. We are dawning a new era of investing after this bear market.
Akamai (AKAM), if you don't know this company, get to it! They control how fast you receive your content on the internet, all the major players use their compression technology and optimizing techniques for blazing fast transfers to everyones computer. These guys are pioneers in that industry, Apple has been using them from Day 1, and Apple knows their technology.
Limelight Networks (LLNW), this is a baby brother to Akamai, they our developing similar technology as Akamai, and they are kicking butt doing it, buy a little of both companies to hedge your exposure in my opinion.
Synaptics (SYNA), these are the guys with the touch-screen technologies every gadget is dying to have nowadays, they pioneered the touch screen for Apple's iPods, iPhones, etc. Pssst these guys are up 150% since the bottom, I wouldn't buy them now, but in 2010, ohya.
Western Digital (WDC), Yes flash is the future but they have a great foothold in the industry of harddrives, they are doing smart acquisitions, I think they will be bought out by a larger company in the future.
Ceragon Networks (CRNT), Israeli company leader in high capacity wireless backhaul solutions, these guys are prepped for the "fattening" internet traffic future.
Adobe (ADBE), Adobe is leading the way for graphics applications and text tool programs, they are far ahead of the rest at this point, I think they will eventually be bought out, possible by Apple. Adobe made a smart acquisition with Macromedia.
Valence Technology (VLNC), Valence is a lithium iron magnesium phosphate energy storage solution company (say that 5 times fast, lol) They produce new age batteries for all applications, this is one to keep a eye on, their battery technology is truly amazing and much safer than current best battery tech.
GeoEye Inc (GEOY), Now get this one, they have a new satellite that produces amazing high resolution shots on planet earth, Google is using them for all their new mapping technologies, including Google Maps and Google Earth, can you say cha-ching? Check out their website the new satellite quality is astounding.
Ok thats all for now, I will give you some more tech tips later on.
....by the way I am in no way affiliated with any of the companies I speak about, I just do my own homework
Stay tuned for my next one : Part 2 Investing : China
So big correction right on schedule this week, the TARP funds are beginning to be paid back this week so you should see a fairly big correction starting on monday, I am holding FAZ right now, I'm expecting it to get above $8 bucks. I will hold as long as it takes. I still have a few dividend paying stocks that I will just hold, I've had them for years and doing good on the dividends and they are up still even with the crash. I sold off my Apple and Google, I want to get back in them but I will wait until I see far lower prices. I'm holding a fair amount of small caps still, some have made 500% gains since the March lows, I have sold off a few, I also just repurchased some First Nickel, they are a great up and coming mining company in Canada here, we have the best new talent for mining companies around the world, Canada is very lush with minerals and metals and oil sands also. I believe the next major bubble in the stock market with be a commodities bubble and silver leading the way under gold's shadow... what do you guys think?
Sunday, June 14, 2009
So guess what guys, TARP money is starting to be paid back this week! Woohoo so you know what that money was used for right? I'm guessing they needed to prop this market up with it so they could take some of their bleeding assets off the table if you know what I mean.
I think we could see the start of a fairly big correction this week... stay tuned for more!